Through a glass darkly. The state of the leagues.
In one of his best known and profound contributions to the history of political thought [read that anyway you like] Donald Rumsfeld [ex US Secretary of Defence] came out with the following statement during a news briefing in 2002.
'Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones’
Whatever about its place within political lore it certainly has a resonance in looking at the state of the league tables as we enter the final month of the season. There are certainties, some teams have already won leagues. Other teams have cemented their places in the two promotion or relegation spots. Of course in these cases one has to wait the outcome of the discussions within the Open Competitions Committee to find out who will go up and down. Then there is the normal range of uncertainties, the unknown unknowns, as top of the table teams fall to bottom of the table teams for no apparent reason. We can do the permutations, and in some cases the paths to salvation or decline and fall are quite clear, but one cannot account for results that defy the form book. So plenty of uncertainties to go around.
And of course there is the fourth category [not mentioned by Rumsfeld] the unknown known - that which we intentionally refuse to acknowledge [look up Wikipedia if you want to know more]. In our case this reasonably accounts for the results we know from the Match Centre but which we must ignore because the official scorecards are not yet sent in.
By now sufficient confusion should have been sown that any failures in predictions can be safety explained away.
D1 Everything still open with the title most likely to go to either Clontarf or Merrion but with North County in the wings if both lead teams falter against third party opposition. Merrion play Clontarf on the last day of the season and that is now looking like a possible final. Two out of three from Cork, Railway and Malahide will be demoted.
D2 Relegation and promotion issues all resolved [at least as far as the playing field goes] but The Hills and Phoenix have a head to head to decide the title next weekend. YMCA II and Trinity in the bottom two.
D3 Clontarf IIs beat Leisnter IIs over the weekend and keep their title and promotion chances alive. A number of teams still in the hunt for honours. At the bottom The Hills must be relegated by now [once non-submitted scorecards are taken into account] with both Phoenix II and Pembroke II winning games that are not yet recorded in the table vying to avoid the second relegation place.
D4 Malahide II winners and YMCA III and Merrion III demoted.
D5 Phoenix III winners and Merrion IV promoted [so really no change for Merrion between D4/D5]. Terenure II and most likely Mullingar down.
D6 Battle between Clontarf III and Knockharley for the title [both should get promoted although there are still matches to play and North County III who won over weekend have a reasonable outside chance]. The two leaders play each other next weekend.
D7 Title and promotion not yet decided. Dundrum II [who beat second placed N Kildare II over the weekend] are making a late run. Leaders Merrion V have still a margin to defend. Merrion have to play both Dundrum and n Kildare over the next two weeks so their fate is in their own hands. Clontarf IV are relegated and the other spot is between Laois II and Wexford W.
D8 Title still open but Bagenalstown now the strong favourites with Leinster IV losing over the weekend. Civil Service are trailing at the bottom of the table but Wicklow’s win [against Leinster] may be enough to get them ahead of DU II and avoid the second drop spot. Could be very tight with Bagenalstown due to play Wicklow next week where points for the latter may be a challenge.
D9 No news about key games yesterday so difficult to speculate. Adamstown II are currently well clear of the pack with North County IV most likely to go up with them. All the remaining teams are bunched between 35% and 50% with quite a few games to play. Too difficult to work out but Sandyford II in most trouble.
D10 Dundalk [who won yesterday] challenging leaders Swords very hard. Nothing between them at the top of the table. Ringcommons lose again and must relegated at this point. Results not sent in so not clear whether Railway V are still in with a shout. Longford II won at the weekend but are still a way behind Terenure III.
D11 YMCA V and Castleknock II promoted but no official reports on their match yesterday. Unofficial tweets suggest that YMCA won which should just about clinch the title for them. Rush IIIs win puts pressure on other teams at the bottom of the table, Merrion VI, Civil Service III and Pembroke V. All very close.
D12 All sorted at the top with Adamstown III winners and The Hills IV runners up. No reports on other matches over weekend so nothing to report.
D13 No updates from weekend games that impact table. Dundrum III and Swords II fighting it out with Phoenix V in third place. A lot of remixes due. Railway VI and Pembroke VI detached at bottom of table and look very likely to go down.
D14 Leinster VII and Bagenalstown II clear at the top and both in action over weekend - but no results or news. Sandyford relegated to be followed most probably [despite win on Saturday] by Mullingar III
D15 Civil Service IV confirmed promoted and well clear at top of the table and with cancelled match over weekend may now be uncatchable. Other results not in. Dundalk win and move clear of bottom two teams Clontarf Vi and Merrion VIII who look likely to go down.
D16 Carlow just waiting to be crowned winners [their match postponed on Sunday]. real battle between Ashbourne [who won over weekend] and N Kildare IV for second spot.
Current positions [based on scorecards submitted]
| | Winners | Promotion | Promotion | Relegation | Relegation |
| League | | | | | |
| D1 | | Merrion | Clontarf | Cork C | Malahide |
| D2 | | The Hills | Phoenix | YMCA II | DU |
| D3 | | Merrion II | Leinster II | Phoenix II | The Hills II |
| D4 | Malahide II | Malahide II | N County II | YMCA III | Merrion III |
| D5 | Phoenix III | Phoenix III | Merrion IV | Mullingar | Terenure II |
| D6 | | Clontarf III | Knockharley | Sandyford | Railway U IV |
| D7 | | Merrion V | N Kildare II | Laois II | Clontarf IV |
| D8 | | Bagenalstown | Leinster IV | Wicklow C | C Service II |
| D9 | | Adamstown II | N County IV | Mullingar II | Sandyford II |
| D10 | | Swords | Dundalk | Longford II | Ringcommons |
| D11 | | YMCA V | Castleknock II | Merrion VI | Rush III |
| D12 | Adamstown III | Adamstown III | The Hills IV | Halverstown | Leinster VI |
| D13 | | Dundrum III | Swords II | Pembroke VI | Railway U VI |
| D14 | | Leinster VII | Bagenalstown II | Mullingar III | Sandyford III |
| D15 | | Civil Service IV | Balbriggan III | Rush IV | Merrion VIII |
| D16 | | Carlow | N Kildare IV | | |
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