There is no denying the fact that Merrion 3 have dominated the Middle Cup in recent years. Last year's winners also won in 2009, 2010 and 2014, and have won ten of their last eleven games in the competition. Spreading the net a little wider, the competition has been won by 3rd teams every year since 2009, and has only been out of Dublin 4 once (Malahide 3 won in 2013, YMCA in 2012 and Pembroke in 2011 and 2015).
So the odds are against a breakthrough win by a non Dublin 4 club, but how long are those odds?
If Merrion 3 were drawn at home, and against the vast majority of teams in the draw, they would cruise all the way to yet another title. But the draw hasn't been kind, as they will be away in every match. Even more importantly they are away to Adamstown 1, who may just have it in them to cause an upset. Although playing a division lower than Merrion (Division 5 to Division 4), Adamstown will most likley have an improved squad from 2016, and this could be their year to advance, sending the holders out in the first round.
Balbriggan 2 romped to a league and cup double in 2016, and have been promoted to the Middle Cup. Against many teams, they would be able to rise to the challenge, but they have drawn one of the strongest third teams around, YMCA 3, and that may be beyond Balbriggan. Against that is YM's awful cup record, which has seen them lose in the first round in each of the last three years. A tight match, but YM should just advance.
Clontarf 3 play Mullingar 1 in a preliminary round match that should go the way of the higher league side, Clontarf. Tarf have seven Middle Cup titles, but none since 2003, and are overdue a bit of silverware. The one potential spanner in the works is that Mullingar have won four of the last five matches between these two. One of those matches where home advantage is crucial, and so Clontarf should go through. The winners will play Railway Union 3 in the first round proper. Railway have an even record against both Clontarf (3-4) and Mullingar (2-2), but may stuggle to get past the first round.
The other preliminary round match has Rush 2 travelling to Dublin 15 to play Castleknock 1. Both teams line out in Division 6, and Rush got to the semi finals in 2016. Castleknock have had good cup runs in the last few seasons, but in the lower Middle 2 Cup (runners up in 2016 and semi finalists in 2015), and the nine meetings between the two teams have been even - 5-4 in favour of Rush. Another match where home advantage could be crucial, so Castleknock to upset the form book and to advance. The winners will play Phoenix 3, a Phoenix 3 side that unusually (in recent times) is one of the favourites for the competition. After last year's promotion, Phoenix are one of only two Division 4 clubs in the draw (along with Merrion 3). That alone should be enough to overcome either Castleknock or Rush, with both playing their leagu8e cricket two divisions below.
Pembroke 3 went all the way to the Middle Cup final in 2016, before losing to Merrion 3 in the final. They play a Sandyford 1 side who beat Pembroke in last year's YMCA Salver match, but they are unlikeyl to repeat the feat. Sandyford last won a cup back in 2008 when they lifted the Middle 2 Cup, but success in the Middle Cup has ben harder to get.
A Dublin 6 derby takes place in Terenure, with Terenure 2 hosting Leinster 3. Apart from Castleknock 1, Greystones 1 and Longford 1 (in their present incarnation) who haven't won any cups, Terenure (last win in the 1970 Intermediate Cup) and Leinster (last win in 1977 Middle Cup) have the longest period since success. It is unlikely either will break that duck in 2017, but with local pride at stake, that doesn't matter. The teams last met in 2015, with Leinster winning five of the last eight matches. That would suggest a Leinster win, although Terenure did get to the final in 2014 (a year Leinster got to the semis). A close one, but Leinster should advance.
Malahide 3 of Division 6 will host Longford 1 of Division 5. Malahide won this cup in 2013, but have slipped down the leagues since, whereas Longford are on the up and up (depsite having a less than stellar cup record). They last met in 2013, with Malahide winning, but since then Longford should have gained the ascendancy.
The top of the draw sees Greystones 1 host Merrion 4, a match in which Greystones are very much favourites. Merrion struggle by playing on the same day as their third team, and by definition are weaker in cups than they are in leagues when they can avail of higher standard players. Merrion have lost their last three cup games, and have also lost their last three matches against Greystones 1 (all back in 2014). Everything points to a Greystones win.
Our pick for the four semi finalists is Phoenix 3, Leinster 3, Adamstown 1 and Longford 1, with Phoenix beating Longford in the final, which will be played in Balbriggan on August 6.