D1: Another exciting end to season in prospect

The Excel spreadsheets and pocket calculators have been working feverishly following the dramatic results yesterday when Merrion went down by 94 runs to Railway Union and North County got the better of Clontarf. The league table itself shows North County retake first place but it is still down to the final three matches to determine who will be the Champions for 2015.

Notwithstanding their current third place Clontarf are in the strongest position. They have to beat Merrion next week and, if North County win their final match against Pembroke, go on to win against Cork County the following weekend. But a ‘No Result’ due to the weather will not be enough for them in the Mardyke. 

If North County are to become Champions they have to win their final game [which is at home against Pembroke] next weekend and do so with a points margin no worse than one less than Merrion’s, were Merrion to beat Clontarf in the other game. If there was no more cricket this summer with all games rained off, then North County would win the league.

Merrion’s hopes now rest on a victory over Clontarf [so no change there] but they also have to gain at least two points on their rivals, North County. The reason for the two points is that under the Playing Regulations if two teams are tied on the same number of points, the placings will be determined by the number of points in the matches between the two teams. North County obtained more points in the head to head contests between the two clubs.

The position at the bottom of the table is a little clearer. Basically Railway are all but safe if they win one of their two remaining home matches [the first against Malahide as a T20 tonight]. Even if they lose both of their matches they still may survive if one of Cork or Malahide don’t win both of their games.

The best chance of a further upset is probably for Malahide to win against Railway tonight and then go on to defeat Cork. For Cork to survive, Malahide would have to beat Railway and Cork then go on to beat Malahide and probably Clontarf as well. If Railway lose their last two matches badly [their second match is against YMCA] and Cork win one of their two remaining matches and get enough bonus points to make up the current 4 point deficit, they could overtake Railway

The only other permutations is if tonight’s refixed match is rained off, in which case Cork would have to win their final two matches and Railway lose to YMCA. Finally, [I think], if Railway were to win one game narrowly and be heavily defeated in the second, then they could be caught by Cork who win both with a lot of bonus points.

So still plenty to play for and another exciting climax to the season in prospect with six teams having skin in the game and the two others able to play the role of spoilers.

The possible breakdown of points [once official scorecards are submitted] to the end of season based on the minimum and maximum number of bonus points that can be obtained is set out below.