RSA Open D3 : The Final Weekend

With only three matches still to complete, promotion and relegation from Division 3 is still in the balance. Last weekend’s extraordinary results which saw three of the top teams lose and the fourth, Balbriggan, stage a remarkable fight-back to win by two wickets, have ensured that the fate of only one club in the league has been determined.

What we know so far is that YMCA II can neither be promoted or relegated as they have finished their season and are firmly in the mid-table. We also know that Balbriggan will be promoted. Everything else is up for grabs.

Let us start with the top. Merrion II  have 166 points [60.36%] and a double-header against The Hills [currently bottom place] this weekend. Assuming both matches are played, Merrion need to win one of the two fixtures to top the league. On the other hand were they to lose both matches, then they would need two bonus points to stay above North County II, currently in third and with no matches to play. In the event of a Clontarf II win, Merrion would then need to win one of their games even to secure the second promotion spot.

Matters are even more intriguing at the bottom of the table. Mathematically, four teams can still be relegated. Clontarf if they lose and get no bonus points will have 45.81% and therefore could end up below everyone except Civil Service. Pembroke have still one match to play so their fate is in their own hands. A loss would drop them below Civil Service.

The Hills have two games to play so have the opportunity to substantially improve their position. Two wins could see them above 50% and safety. One win [and five bonus points] would not be enough to get to safety and they would still be below Civil Service. Bonus points however might be enough to drag them up even with one loss. Even then it depends on Pembroke losing and the number of bonus points they get. It is also possible that two teams could end up on the same percentage and run rate woud come into the equation. Finally, Civil Service will be hoping that The Hills loss one of their two fixtures [and don't get nine bonus points] and Pembroke also lose and then they will survive.

So an intriguing weekend in store. Unless Merrion contrive to lose twice they will win the league. If they lose twice but get two bonus points and Clontarf win [who cannot be promoted] then decisions on promotion and relegation from D2 will move to the committee rooms of the OCC. Clontarf will be anxious to beat Pembroke so their fate is not dependent on how The Hills perform [again!].

The usual health warning goes with these figures – if you intend to base your tactics on the mathematics, do your own calculations.

The current table.