There are a massive 24 league places between the 2014 league finishing positions of the highest and lowest ranked teams in this year's Middle Cup draw, and it is difficult to ignore those league positions - however romantic the dreams of a giant slaying cup run may be.
Merrion 3 are the highest ranked team (second in Division 4 last year), and with YMCA 3 just behind them in the league, these two will be the teams to beat. Adamstown 1 ,the 2014 Division 7 champions, are at the other end of the scale, but despite that massive difference, they are not completely out of contention either. Here is our preview of the 2015 Middle Cup, the third tier cup competition of Leinster cricket.
There are two preliminary round matches, and we'll start with the parts of the draw containing those extra matches.
YMCA 3, twice winners of the Middle Cup (1996 and 2012) have to be considered one of the favourites for this year. Their recent cup form has not been quite as impressive as you may think though - that 2012 title was followed up by a 1st round loss last year, and a losing quarter final in 2013. Their league standing doesn't lie though, and they should beat a Railway Union 3 side (Middle Cup winners in 1989) that lost last time out against YM - albeit by only seven runs. However that was in 2013.
Interestingly, Railway's cup form over the past four seasons includes the fact that they are unbeaten against sides from outside Dublin 4. They lost to Merrion 3 in the 2011 semi final; to YMCA 3 in the 2012 final; to YMCA 3 (again) in the 2013 first round and then to Merrion 3 in last year's semi final. Unfortunately for Railway, YMCA's Dublin 4 location means it could be another first round exit this year. The winners of that match will play Mullingar 1 in the first round proper.
Mullingar's only Middle Cup title was back in 2000, and in recent years have had a tough time in the higher Senior 2 Cup. The Middle Cup should be to their liking, although unfortunately the draw has not been kind, and should YM overcome Railway in the preliminary round, the last two matches between YMCA 3 and Mullingar 1 will loom large in everyone's mind - YM won by 5 wickets at 174 runs.
The other tie in the top quarter of the draw is an intriguing match between the third teams of Pembroke and Phoenix. The teams haven't met since May 2012, and as such the results between the two (Pembroke lead 3-1) don't count for much. Phoenix 3 (2004 Middle Cup winners) have a poor cup record, with their run to the semi finals in 2013 being the only recent occasion that they have won more than one cup match. But their league promotion in 2014 proves they are going in the right direction, and they could just sneak past the three time champions, Pembroke 3.
The bottom quarter of the draw has the other preliminary round, as Merrion 4 of Division 5 host Rush 2 of Division 6. Merrion 4 have only had two cup wins in four seasons, but it shouldn't be forgotten that they are the only 4th team in the Middle Cup. Rush 2 last won the Middle Cup in 2005, but have struggled a bit since then, and whilst not being the worst team in the competition, have not threatened either. Their record against Merrion 4 isn't great, and they have lost the last three matches they have played. We'll stick our neck out though, and say that an improving Rush 2 will sneak home.
They will host North County 3 in the first round proper, a team that have surprisingly never won this competition. North County's record in recent years has been characterised by winning the matches against lower teams, and losing the ones against higher teams. As such, we think they will win this match (whether it is against Merrion 4 or Rush 2), and will advance to the quarter final.
Should our predictions be correct, North County 3 will then play either Longford 1 or Adamstown 1 in the quarter final. These two are the lowest ranked teams in the draw, but are both capable of springing a surprise. Longford's last cup triumph was way back in the 1952 Junior Cup, and since their re-entry to Leinster cricket, they have held their own at this level. Last year they lost in the first round to Railway Union 3, and whether they lose again this year is a tough one to call. Adamstown 1 are the Middle 2 Cup champions, but are untested at this level, and have never played Adamstown 1. It could go either way, but North County 3 should be too strong in the quarter final.
The other games in the bottom half of the draw see Clontarf 3 host Railway Union 4, and Terenure 2 host Malahide 3. Clontarf 3 are one of the giants of the Middle Cup, but there best days are now a good while ago. Seven times winners of the competition, their last win was back in 2003, and it is difficult to see them going all the way. However they are capable of big wins (they beat YMCA 3 in last year's cup) and so can't be discounted. They haven't played Railway Union 4 in recent years, but should be too strong. Railway were playing in the Junior Cup as recently in 2012, and have been promoted quickly. They won their first ever Middle Cup match against Pembroke 3, but since then have lost heavily to Leinster 3 and Malahide 3.
Two Division 5 teams clash in the last tie in the bottom half of the draw. Terenure 2 haven't won a cup since the 1970 Intermediate Cup, and their recent cup record in the Middle Cup wasn't great either - until they went on a run to last year's final! So whilst a repeat can't be discounted, their record against Malahide 3 isn't great, and the two matches between the teams have resulted in big Malahide wins (158 runs and 7 wickets). Terenure's main hope is that Malahide's recent cup record isn't great either - apart from winning it in 2013. Two teams who have under performed, but who are capable of better.
The final part of the draw is where we find our favourites for the competition. Merrion 3 have bestrode the Middle Cup , with seven wins overall, and four wins in the last nine seasons. Even in the years they haven't won, they have performed, being runners up in 2011 and runners up in 2013. With them also being the highest ranked team in the league, Knockharley 1 have been handed a very tough draw indeed. Knockharley 1 won the Middle 2 Cup in 2006. but since then have flattered to deceive. being losing quarter finalists in 2012 and 2013. This will be their first attempt at the Middle Cup, and they face the toughest of starts.
The winners of the Knockharley 1/Merrion 3 tie will face the winners of Sandyford 1 and Leinster 3. Leinster may be a league above Sandyford, but their cup form isn't the best, with their last cup title being the 1977 Middle Cup. They got to last year's semi final without looking dominant, and Sandyford have a chance of upsetting a prediction based on league position. The last meetings between the two were shared in 2013. Against all that positivity for Sandyford is the rather depressing (for Sandyford supporters) fact that they have not won a cup match since our records began in 2011! Whoever wins will probably have the dubious honour of playing Merrion 3.
Unusually for one of our predictions, we are pretty "sure" about the semi finalists. YMCA 3 will host Merrion 3 and either Clontarf 3 or Malahide 3 will face North County 3. Whilst Merrion have to be declared favourites to lift yet another Middle Cup, there has to be a good chance that they will slip up somewhere, and hence we think YMCA 3 may well win back the title they last won in 2013.
Of course the problem with predictions that are probable is that they go completely amiss. Don't put any money on our tips!