Speculating on the end of the season

How good a guide do the end May league tables provide for the final positions. Last year the leading teams in the top three divisions at the end of May went on to win their leagues. Five other divisions went the same way.

Promotion and relegation down the leagues is always more difficult to assess as the performance of a team may be affected by the results of a team in a higher league and a cascade of drops can occur if a club has teams in adjoining leagues.  This can have consequences for other clubs as well.

With that caveat, Phoenix and Leinster must be a little concerned to observe that the two relegation spots in D1 were occupied at end of May last year by the two teams that ultimately suffered the drop. In D2 Leinster II made a recovery to stay up, but Cork County remained in the relegation place.  In all divisions at least one of the two bottom teams at the end of May ended up relegated and in four divisions both teams were in the same position at the end of the year.

Of course – history is not forced to repeat itself.