With four matches to go it is perhaps time to review some of the pathways to the end of the season for individual clubs in D1. The current table is as follows.
| Played | Won | Lost | BP | Points | |
| Merrion | 10 | 9 | 1 | 37 | 217 |
| YMCA | 10 | 9 | 1 | 25 | 205 |
| Clontarf | 10 | 7 | 3 | 20 | 160 |
| Pembroke | 10 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 130 |
| The Hills | 10 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 100 |
| North County | 10 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 85 |
| Railway U | 10 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 64 |
| Terenure | 10 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 39 |
It is perhaps easier to start at the bottom of the table. It remains mathematically possible for Terenure to overtake any of four teams above them provided they were to win all four remaining matches and get maximum bonus points. Given that some of these teams have to play each other [there are 125 points at stake in these matches] and that here are bonus points available against the top three sides it is not realistic to expect that Terenure can catch Pembroke or even The Hills. Terenure are within two wins [with full bonus points] of North County and Railway Union but as these two sides have to play each other it is difficult to see how, outside of a cricketing miracle, Terenure can save themselves.
For Railway Union the likely pathway to salvation lies in keeping in touch with North County [who are 21 points ahead at the moment] until the last day of the season when the two teams are due to meet at the Inch. Both teams are due to play Terenure so a slip up by either could make a difference. Other than that Railway have games against Merrion and Pembroke and North County have to play Pembroke and The Hills. One would have to say that North County have the easier run in so pressure is very much on Railway to get to the 30th Aug within a 20ish points margin of North County.
The Hills are not quite out of danger yet and cannot afford to focus all their attention on the Irish Senior Cup. They have a difficult run in with matches against Merrion, Clontarf and YMCA. They could lose all three and find themselves back in the melting pot with a tricky head-to-head against North County in the Vineyard. Were they to lose all four matches Railway could still catch them provided they won against Terenure and one other. If the worst were to come to pass for The Hills they could be looking to their neighbours to beat Railway in the last round. This is of course all just theory. The Hills are playing well at the moment and it is difficult to see them not taking at least one victory from their last four games.
Pembroke are all but safe barring an almost inconceivable sequence of results. It is so unlikely that I am not even going to try to work out whether it is even possible. So pressure off and Pembroke can afford to focus on the Irish Cup and look to use the rest of the competition to build confidence for next season in what is the youngest team in D1.
Clontarf are still theoretically in the running for the league title [and for everything else as well] but have a long way to go to overhaul the two leaders. YMCA and Merrion have still to play each other and provided the match is not rained off one of them has to collect the points. For Clontarf to take the title it pretty much has to be YMCA and they [and Merrion] also have to lose two matches out of the remaining three. All of this is very unlikely and out of Clontarf’s hands so no doubt they are focussed on their cup campaigns.
In the battle for the title it is now effectively a two horse race between Merrion and YMCA. Merrion are currently ahead by 12 points and the points margin could still be important when the two teams meet up on August 17th [the second last round]. Apart from playing each other both teams have to take on Clontarf [who therefore may still have an important say in who wins the title] and The Hills. The fourth game for YMCA is against Terenure and for Merrion it is Railway.
Similar to Railway U in the battle with North County to avoid the second relegation spot, YMCA need to stay within a reasonable points margin of Merrion and win the ‘head-to-head’. They cannot really afford to lose any of their other three matches or drop further behind in terms of Bonus Points. Merrion have a small amount of leeway in that their pathway to the title could involve losing another match and winning against YMCA. They could even win the title if YMCA beat them but lost one of their other games. There are other mathematical permutations but time is short and there is a life outside cricket.
The 17th August when the two teams meet is still likely to be the crucial date for determining the league title.