Current leaders of the Premier League 

As we approach the first benchmark of the season [End May] with five rounds and just over a third of the matches completed what can we say about the state of the league. At the start of the year there was a general consensus that this could be one of the most competitive seasons ever. So far this seems to have been borne out by the results with all teams losing and winning at least one game. Four teams are within a single win of the top spot with the lead changing hands three times out of four [adjusted for re-fixes]. While R5 saw some fracturing of the league table with three teams temporarily at least breaking off towards the bottom of the table, it is clear that even a brace of wins or losses for any team could see them participating in a game of snakes and ladders.

If one compares the league table to the outcome from other years is there any guidance as to the number of points needed to be in contention for the title or to avoid relegation. The first thing to say is that in a particular year the points requirement usually depends on whether one or more teams are detached from the rest of the teams or if there is a run away winner. A period of bad weather with re-fixes affected could also materially impact the outcome.

It is obviously too early to say how the current season will work out or which previous year it most closely resembles. At this point one might speculate that given its highly competitive nature that the winning total is likely to be somewhere between 240 and 265 points. If the current leaders YMCA were to sustain the same percentage of points as they have at present to the end of the season they would end up with 258. Probably enough to win the league - though by no means certain. So 11 wins and three losses looks like a good bet - but bonus points could still be critical.

What about the other end of the table, how many points will be needed to avoid a play-off. Last year was unusual in that the ‘play-off’ team had 151 points - 25 more than the previous lowest. The lowest number of points that a team achieved and survived [6th or better] over the past five years was 128. So based on past returns [no guarantee as to the future of course], 120 - 125 points might be enough to survive. Again depending on bonus points that suggests a team will need 5 wins [a team with five wins has come sixth in four of the last five years]. But one year a team winning six matches ended up in the play off spot and in another a team with five wins.