It is still early days in the Cricket Leinster transfer market, with new players and overseas players yet to be announced at the top tier of the game. As such it is far too early to be making accurate predictions regarding the likely winners and losers in the 2016 Alan Murray Cup. What can be said is that over the last three seasons, a definite T20 elite had developed, and we will look at who those elite clubs have been, and whether anyone outside of that top five.
The competition has experienced a revamp this year. For the past three seasons, thirteen clubs have been split between north and south, with 36 league games determining the top two from each group. That was felt by most clubs to be a few games too many, and so the competition has been reduced to 21 matches this season, with two groups of four, and two groups of three, drawn more or less randomly (the Fingal quartet of The Hills, North County, Rush and Balbriggan were put in separate groups)
Perusal of each club's record in this competition reveals that the already mentioned five T20 elite clubs win a much bigger proportion of their matches than the other eight. The five clubs, The Hills, Merrion, Clontarf, North County and YMCA have all won between 60% and 80% of their T20 matches since the start of 2013, with not a single club amongst the "rest" doing better than 42% of matches won.
The luck of the draw has meant that none of the elite five have made their way into Group A, one of two groups that has the added bonus of a home semi final. North Kildare make their debut at this level, and although they have been handed a decent draw, the limit of their ambitions may be a single win, although that could well come in any of their matches. Terenure will also fancy their chances of winning a few matches, and they have as good as chance as any of reaching the semis. They have only won three of their last ten T20 matches, and have losing records of 2-4 against both Rush and Railway Union (in all matches since the start of 2011) - they can't be dismissed. Railway Union are the only Division 1 representative in Group A, and as such should be string favourites. However, their T20 form collapsed last year, and from being an average T20 team in 2014, they have slumped some what, winning only two of their last ten T20 matches, a record as bad as anyone else in the competition. They should still have enough to triumph in the group, but Rush are more than capable of a surprise, and may just advance to the semi finals. Games against their rivals have been infrequent, but in what should be a tight group, two good wins may be enough. With net run rate a possibility in deciding the group, a couple of big wins in their high scoring Kenure home could win it.
The other four team group is Group B, and YMCA, the 2012 winners, look to be the early favourites here as the only Division 1 team. YMCA have never played Balbriggan in the Alan Murray, but have winning Alan Murray records against both Leinster (3-1) and Malahide (1-0). On paper Balbriggan are outsiders, but with John Mooney in the side, upsets are a possibility. Mooney is one of only four players to have a T20 batting index (average plus strike rate) of over 200 over the last four seasons with 219, with the other three being Max Sorensen (The Hills, 242), Dave Langford Smith (Merrion, 220) and Andrew Poynter (Clontarf, 202). Leinster are also capable of springing a surprise, and along with Malahide, they have won four of their last ten games in the competition. YMCA should advance, but this is another tight group, with the winner having an excellent chance of advancing to the final.
Groups C and D should be thrilling affairs. Group C has 2014 champions, Clontarf; 2013 champions The Hills, and newly promoted Phoenix, who last won in 2000. As stated at the beginning of the article, it is difficult to predict the outcome of such a tight group at this early stage. The Hills have an excellent record against Phoenix, and haven't lost to them in any competition since 2011. They also have the edge on Clontarf winning three of their last five T20 meetings. Phoenix look to be the outsiders, but in a three team group, one good performance could send you through. We're tipping The Hills, but all gave a good chance of a home semi final spot.
If Group C was tough to call, Group D is impossible. Reigning champions Merrion look to be the team to beat, but they will have to do it the hard way, having North County and Pembroke in their group, before an away semi final. Last year was Merrion's 8th Alan Murray title, an unmatched hoard. They also have an excellent record over Pembroke (10-3 in all matches) and North County (8-3 in all matches but not in the Alan Murray in the last five seasons). It looks like Merrion, but there is no way the other two can be ignored.
And what of the destination of the trophy itself? We think that who ever comes out of Group C has to be favourites - at the moment.